Analysis of the domestic excavator market in the first half of the year and the market outlook in the second half of the year

1. Market sales in the second half of the year: From the current trend of the real estate market, the construction area and new opening area of the real estate market in the second half of the year will still fall, which is difficult to drive the market demand for related machinery and equipment.

However, with excavators as a barometer, the construction machinery industry has once again entered the equipment renewal cycle. In the second half of the year, the small excavators that took the lead in entering the renewal cycle will continue to pull the overall sales of excavators to continue to rebound.

At the same time, under the promotion of large-scale equipment renewal policies around the country, nearly one million old excavators below the second and more than ten years will be gradually phased out. Although, due to the downturn in the downstream market such as real estate, most of the old excavators have no replacement demand, but the huge stock of equipment is cleared, which is conducive to repairing the supply and demand relationship in the rental market.

Based on this, it is expected that the excavator market will maintain a growth rate of about 20% in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the domestic excavator sales will exceed 100,000 units in the year, an increase of about 15%.

2. Agent development: As small mining takes the lead in entering the update cycle, the proportion of small mining sales continues to increase. This is not good news for agents.

On the one hand, in order to ensure market share, most agents sell small mining machinery at a loss, and the more they sell, the greater the loss; On the other hand, because small mining customers are more fragmented and more mobile, the gap between the marketing coverage cost of small mining machinery and the three guarantees service cost is not obvious.

At the same time, for agents, there is little business to do after the market demand for small mining models such as parts and maintenance. However, the debt risk of small mining sales is relatively low, the legal machine repurchased by agents is also relatively easy to dispose of cash, and the overall debt risk control exposure is better than that of large mining.

Therefore, it is expected that the operating profit of agents in the second half of the year will continue to deteriorate. However, the increase in small mining sales and the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds in the second half of the year are expected to ease the pressure on the operating cash flow of enterprises.In addition, due to the rising proportion of small mining sales, the market share of joint venture/foreign brands will still be eroded and squeezed by domestic brands.

In summary, although from the data point of view, the excavator market has bottomed out, but even if the domestic sales of more than 100,000 units this year, it is difficult to correct the imbalance between excess capacity and market demand, the price war will not go away, and most agents and leasehold "days" are still suffering. Oems can rely on the sea to "replenish energy", and agents can rely on what?

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